- Polls apart - 4th March 2026
- Repeating on you… - 4th March 2026
- History man - 3rd March 2026
During 23 years with the BBC, and 42 years in journalism (when he was trained to use clear and simple language, avoiding jargon), our Editor Welshman Phil Parry has always followed opinion polls, because they show what the public really think of leading politicians or events, and this is now put centre stage by Donald Trump’s incredible gamble in Iran, where surveys have revealed that his approval ratings are unbelievably low, when they were already poor.
The thing about gamblers is that they always want to win.
Donald Trump may be winning in Iran (although the jury’s out on that one) because its leadership has been decapitated, but he is losing in the arena where he really wants victory – the court of public opinion.
Apart from killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Israel Defence Forces (IDF) say they have also killed Sayed Yahya Hamidi, Iran’s Deputy Minister of Intelligence for Israel Affairs, and have said that Jalal Pour Hossein, head of the espionage division at the Ministry of Intelligence (MoI), was also killed, along with other “regime officials”.
But whereas the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq began with deep reserves of public enthusiasm, this one began with little support.
Just 27 per cent of Americans thought the country should attack Iran, according to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted a week before the first strikes.
Now it seems the approval ratings are similar or even worse.
Only 27 of Americans approved of the bombing of Iran, while 43 percent disapproved, according to a survey by Reuters/Ipsos conducted over the weekend.
And this was BEFORE news broke that six US soldiers had been killed!
A CBS survey taken on Monday and Tuesday found that more than 60 per cent of nearly 1,400 American adults did not think the Trump administration has provided a clear explanation for the US’s goals in Iran.
According to a CNN poll around 59 per cent of them disapprove of Mr Trump.
He had promised peace in his presidential campaign, and claims to have ended eight wars, but Mr Trump has signalled the campaign could go on for weeks and may even involve American boots on the ground (although you never know with him!).
If it actually happens, it could damage his popularity ratings even further.
The CBS poll also found that while Americans were split on how long they believed a war with Iran would last (days/weeks, months, years, or unclear), approval fell dramatically alongside a more drawn out conflict.
Nearly 70 per cent of Americans also said Mr Trump needs authorisation from Congress to continue military action against Iran, which he does not currently have.
“Trump promised to end wars”, Democrats on the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee posted on X on Monday. “He’s now started more wars than any president in modern American history. Instead of affordable healthcare and groceries, the American people get to foot the billion-dollar tabs for Trump’s foreign wars of choice”.
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Predictably perhaps, Mr Trump has ignored or dismissed his sliding approval rating, and only seizes on the figures when they show him in a good light.
In an interview with the New York Post (NYP) on Monday, he declared: “I think that the polling is very good, but I don’t care about polling. I have to do the right thing. I have to do the right thing. This should have been done a long time ago.
“Look, whether polling is low or not, I think the polling is probably fine. But it’s not a question of polling. You cannot let Iran, who’s a nation that has been run by crazy people, have a nuclear weapon. I think people are very impressed with what is happening, actually… I think it’s a silent – if you did a real poll, the silent poll – and it’s like a silent majority.”
But despite Mr Trump’s braggadocio he will know better than most that these polling numbers MATTER – not least for the midterms in November.
Mr Trump and his allies have acknowledged their steep odds in this year’s midterm elections, gesturing in their remarks to the midterm curse. “Sitting presidents don’t seem to do well in the midterms. I guess, over a 50-year period, they won twice, so I don’t know what that is”, he told reporters on Air Force One.
The oil price has already gone up, and it may go up further, which could prompt inflation, hitting voters in the pocket, making his prospects even weaker.
Incumbents are invariably punished at the ballot box in those circumstances, and Republicans may be less keen to endorse Mr Trump, so Democrats might win a majority in the House of Representatives (HoR).
Of course Mr Trump probably knows all this, even though he says “I don’t care about polling”, because the numbers are important, so the polling figures are worth watching.
I will certainly be doing it…
Phil’s memories of his extraordinary award-winning career in journalism (including major stories like these) as he was gripped by the rare incurable disabling condition Hereditary Spastic Paraplegia (HSP), have been released in an important book ‘A GOOD STORY’. Order it now!
Tomorrow how during that career, for him sadly reporting violent scenes or court cases has always been central, but it was rare to report a terrible fatal fight which prompts an emergency government meeting, and rips apart the left.
